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And yet we blindly do believe things because we inherently trust this magazine, or that newscaster, or the a specific newspaper. We fail to do the most basic human thing…question. One of the first things we should do when we read any story, or hear any newscast, is question the source of the information, question the facts. Blindly following the words of another can lead down a slippery slope.

A recent Science article claimed that all the pink salmon in the Broughton Archipelago would be extinct within 4 or 5 cycles…all due to aquaculture. If you read the article and didn’t ask any questions you would be left with a Doomsday opinion that aquaculture must be banned and that it is the root of all aquatic health problems in BC. But what about the crashing ocean productivity, what about the starving seabird populations, what about all the other signs that there are larger things going on in our ecosystems that we do not understand? Models provide some insights, but they are only as useful as the base knowledge that was used to develop them….and that iust virtually always far less than is required to actually answer a question accurately.

There was an interesting article in the Vancouver Sun a bit back….

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Why do we keep believing predictions from ‘experts’?

Looking into the future has shown even those supposedly in the know don’t have a clue about the future

Saturday, June 07, 2008

Anyone who predicts what the future holds beyond a three-year horizon is a fool. Anyone who believes the predictions of these futurists is a bigger fool.

Any politician or business executive who makes decisions on the basis of these predictions is the biggest fool of all.

Consider the following prognostications and what actually transpired.

– “Everything that can be invented has been invented.” — Charles H. Duell, commissioner, U.S. Patent Office, 1899.

Where do I even start? With access to vaccines, heart transplants, televisions, DVDs, computers, cellphones and the like, we know this prediction was poppycock.

– “This ‘telephone’ has too many shortcomings to be seriously considered as a means of communication. The device is inherently of no value to us.” — Western Union, internal memo, 1876.

The ubiquitousness of the telephone today has certainly proven that the guy(s) who wrote the memo didn’t know what they were talking about.

– “I think there is a world market for maybe five computers.” — Thomas Watson, chairman, IBM, 1943; and “There is no reason anyone would want a computer in their home.” — Ken Olson, president and founder, Digital Equipment Corp., 1977.

With more than 70 per cent of Canadian households containing a computer today, we can safely conclude that Watson was wrong. With millions of people finding the computer of immense value for shopping and getting their news online, I guess they beg to differ from Olson.

– “Who the hell wants to hear actors talk?” — Harry Warner, Warner Brothers, 1927.

Sometimes I have the same thought, but billions of people pay hefty admission prices to see and hear their heroes.

– “We don’t like their sound, and guitar music is on its way out.” — Decca Recording Co., rejecting the Beatles, 1962.

The Beatles are the bestselling musical group of all time. According to estimates by the EMI record label, they’ve sold more than one billion discs and tapes worldwide. Not bad for a group that was into guitar music.

– “Humanity will totally run out of copper by the year 2000; lead, zinc, tin, gold, and silver will all be gone by 1990.” — Harrison Brown, a member of the National Academy of Sciences, 1970.

So much for academic credentials protecting you from making silly forecasts. If Harrison had only taken an Economics 101 class in university, he wouldn’t have been so bold in his prediction.

– “Hurry before this wonderful product is depleted from Nature’s laboratory.” — Kier Rock Oil advertisement in Pennsylvania, 1859.

We have not run out of oil because new technology — think of Alberta’s oilsands — gives us access to oil that we didn’t have before. Higher prices provide entrepreneurs with the signal to explore and develop more oil sources.

– “The battle to feed all humanity is over. In the 1970s the world will undergo famines; hundreds of millions of people are going to starve to death in spite of any crash programs embarked upon now.” — Paul Ehrlich, Stanford University biologist, 1968.

He was spectacularly wrong. This prediction was based on the Malthusian prediction of population growing geometrically and food production increasing arithmetically. That didn’t happen.

First, population growth resulted from drops in infant mortality and increases in life expectancy, both associated with improvements in quality of life. Second, fertility declined as incomes rose. Third, advances in agricultural technology boosted crop yields. The net result is that there’s plenty of food, but not in the right places at the right time.

– “The evidence in support of these predictions [fusion_builder_container hundred_percent=”yes” overflow=”visible”][fusion_builder_row][fusion_builder_column type=”1_1″ background_position=”left top” background_color=”” border_size=”” border_color=”” border_style=”solid” spacing=”yes” background_image=”” background_repeat=”no-repeat” padding=”” margin_top=”0px” margin_bottom=”0px” class=”” id=”” animation_type=”” animation_speed=”0.3″ animation_direction=”left” hide_on_mobile=”no” center_content=”no” min_height=”none”][of global cooling] has now begun to accumulate so massively that meteorologists are hard-pressed to keep up with it.” — Time magazine, 1975.

So much for that scientific consensus on global cooling; now the scientific consensus has tilted toward global warming. What are we laypeople to make of these contradictory forecasts?

– The global average surface temperature is projected to increase by 1.1 degrees C to 6.4 C by 2100, according to the Intergovernmental Panel on Climate Change, 2007.

I wonder whether it’s a surplus of hubris or scarcity of knowledge that allows scientists to make such long-term predictions.

– “Things will not break down all at once in early January [2000] unless the power grid goes down and stays down. But the domino effect will create ever-increasing institutional noise and confusion throughout January and beyond. Your cheque will not be in the mail.” — Gary North, Christian Reconstructionist, 2000.

There was not a single major Y2K problem.

– “I persuade myself verily, that the day of judgment will not be absent full three hundred years. God will not, cannot, suffer this world much longer . . . the great day is drawing near in which the kingdom of abominations shall be overthrown.” — Martin Luther, Protestant reformer, 16th century; Elizabeth Clare Prophet predicted the end of the world by nuclear war in 1990.

There have been hundreds of such prophesies — just Google to find out — made over the years. And the world has not ended yet.

All of these predictions have a common underlying theme: The folks who make them think they have all the information they need to do their prophesying. Well, they don’t.

Friedrich Hayek, the Nobel Prize winning economist, pointed out in a 1945 article titled The Use of Knowledge in Society and the 1988 book The Fatal Conceit that the variety of needs that we have cannot be met unless we rely on the knowledge that is dispersed in society among many individuals. In other words, no one person has all the information necessary at any given time or place to meet our needs on a daily basis, let alone make bold predictions about what will happen 20 years from now.

Still, the question remains: Why do people believe what doomsday environmentalists, economists, business executives, preachers and astrologers tell us is going to happen 10, 20 or 100 years from now? Apart from our deep desire to know what’s going to happen to us and our families in the future, there is no question that too many of us are suckers for a fine yarn spun by “experts.”

fmihlar@png.canwest.com

© The Vancouver Sun 2008

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So, start questioning what you read….don’t dismiss everything, but learn to be somewhat skeptical of the news you hear or read…..[/fusion_builder_column][/fusion_builder_row][/fusion_builder_container]